MARKET AND PROJECTED SALES

Hitachi's forecast of the FPD market size is summarized in Figure 1.2. There are several important summary comments to accompany this figure:

• The display sales will double in 10 years, a 7% compounded annual growth.
• Because of cost differential, CRTs will not be replaced by FPDs.
• CRT sales will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than FPDs.
• By the year 2000, half of the display sales will be in FPDs.
• The portion of FPD market share captured by AMLCDs and passive LCDs is highly dependent on the technical evolution of those two approaches and the consumer product end market demand.

There was no evidence or market plan to indicate that the flat-panel "television-on-the-wall" at consumer prices would arrive before the year 2000. It is ironic that, since the 1950s, the "TV-on-the-wall" has been the principal market motivation to develop FPDs, and it is still not technically feasible at a competitive price when compared to the conventional CRT.

Figure 1.2. World Wide Display Sales

The LCD market share breakdown for 1990 is as shown in Figure 1.3. The a-Si TFT AMLCD was not in significant production in 1990. Factories to produce the technology are just starting to come on line. By 1991, Sharp's monthly production rate was as follows:

     Nara Plant                     10 million          TN LCDs for calculators          350,000             STN LCDs for graphics          12,000              EL displays for machine control     Tenri Plant          150,000             a-Si TFT AMLCDs for TV andcomputer                40,000              a-Si TFT AMLCDs (new line starting1/92)          (Projected

Figure 1.3. 1990 Market Share